What constitutes "victory in Afghanistan?

(by Geoff Seeff <geoffseeff@cix.co.uk> on 17th November 2009)

One thing is for sure - victory will not be winning a military war against the Taleban. We may kill off some of its leaders and thousands of its foot soldiers but, as has happened for over 200 years, the survivors will melt back into the mountains and villages and will re-emerge the moment NATO forces leave. Needless to say in this process we will lose many of our finest young people and inflict death and injury on the ordinary citizens of Afghanistan.

I take my lead on this issue from the LibDem's Lord (Paddy) Ashdown as he is the acknowledged expert on international conflicts and their resolution. He says that if we, the West, want to restore stability to the region and ensure that terrorism is not exported, we have to allow Afghanistan to develop in its own way and in its own time. Democracy based round a central government does not work in countries that cling proudly to tribal loyalties - it is difficult enough to make it work, if indeed it does, in the UK.

Victory will be secured when each region becomes autonomous and establishes its own form of governance. A "loya jirga" (meeting of leaders) should agree common rights eg education of women, movement between regions, and an accord with the UN on the opium trade. Some regions will be reasonably democratic, others will be feudal; none will achieve the economic and social development that might otherwise have been possible. However, they should be at peace with each other and the world at large.

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